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Economist is bullish on corn, not soybeans
Posted: 1/8/2010


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Corn prices are looking bullish for 2010 amid greater demand but the same can't be said for soybeans and wheat.
Writing on the AgAnswers web site, Purdue University ag economist Chris Hurt says corn demand will strengthen thanks to growing ethanol production and U.S. exports.
He says storing the corn crop might be the best pricing strategy.
“As we talk about price levels, and of course this will vary by location, but it feels like we will probably see corn prices get back above $4 per bushel at some point,” he predicts.
Because 2009 was a record corn yield year in the U.S., Hurt says it's unlikely prices will get very far above the $4 mark.
“In terms of world corn inventory, we’re going to see our ending stocks this year for the 2009-2010 marketing year at about 16.5 per cent of annual use,” he says. “In the really extreme high prices on corn, we got down to about 13 per cent. While 16.5 percent is not a surplus, the world does not have as grave a concern for running out of corn.”
The ending stocks for soybeans for the 2009-2010 marketing year will likely be somewhere around 25 per cent of the year’s use, Hurt said, so prices are not likely to average higher than about $10 for the 2009 crop.
“Soybean stocks are going to be highly dependent upon the size of the South American crop, which is being planted now,” Hurt said. “Those soybeans will be harvested from March to May. There is anticipation that we will see world soybean production increase by about 1.3 billion bushels, and more than a billion of those will be from South American production areas."
“The stronger prices we have for soybeans in the U.S. this fall have helped stimulate acreage in South America. The big world stock increases will come if yields are normal this year. The problem for South America this past year was drought and very low yields for the crop they produced in the harsh spring of 2009. So, soybeans do have the prospect of returning to relatively high inventories around the world at this point.”
“If the South American crop is the magnitude that is anticipated, then there’s a possibility that we would see prices very flat in the winter and even decrease some as we go into next spring and summer,” Hurt said. “So, this would suggest more aggressive pricing of soybeans in the fall and winter, unlike corn where prices will continue to increase throughout the storage season.”
Of the three largest crops, Hurt says producers should expect the flattest price prospects on wheat.
“What we see with wheat is a restoring of pretty large world inventories and a surplus in the U.S.,” he says. “Ending world wheat stocks for the 2009-2010 marketing year will be about 29 per cent. Just to compare, when we saw the high prices in 2008, ending stocks were around 18 per cent.”
Things could change, especially for soybeans, if South American experience weather problems during the growing season.
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